Week Ahead: CPI Wednesday, JPMorgan Earnings Tuesday

This week's calendar: Wednesday's September CPI, Tuesday's bank-earnings open, and Thursday's PPI and retail sales bundle. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,811.54; E-mini December futures are near 7,883. Bitcoin is near 83,951 dollars. Catch up on last week: weekly markets roundup.

The Big One: Wednesday CPI Is the Last Print Before the FOMC

The week pivots on Wednesday, October 14, at 12:30 UTC. The BLS publishes September CPI, the last major inflation reading before the October 27-28 FOMC. Mechanics: CPI guide. Headline is seen at +0.6 percent on the month and 3.6 percent year over year, up from +0.4 percent and 3.4 percent, as Hormuz energy hits the September basket. Monthly core is seen slowing to +0.2 percent from +0.3 percent, annual core to 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent.

The Committee hiked 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00 percent funds range on September 15-16. Core PCE later printed 3.0 percent. Payrolls printed 29,000. October 28 hike odds still sit near 17 to 20 percent. A hot core would put those odds back in play. A cool core would leave Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday IMF remarks as colour. The Beige Book lands at 18:00 UTC. Docket: calendar.

Economic Calendar, Day by Day

Consensus versus prior. Monday is Columbus Day: bonds shut, NYSE and Nasdaq open. Friday is monthly OpEx, not quad-witching.

• Monday, Oct 12: Cash 13:30 UTC. Hammack about 16:10 UTC. Japan PPI 23:50 UTC, seen +7.6% y/y unrevised.
• Tuesday, Oct 13: RBA minutes 00:30 UTC of the hike to 4.60%. Germany final CPI 06:00 UTC, seen +0.6% m/m. Waller 07:45 UTC. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report about 10:00 UTC. Existing home sales 14:00 UTC, 3.96 million after 3.98 million.
• Wednesday, Oct 14: China CPI/PPI 01:30 UTC, CPI seen +1.1% y/y after +0.8%, PPI +4.4% after +3.8%. Lagarde about 02:10 UTC. Bailey 05:30 UTC. US CPI 12:30 UTC. Beige Book 18:00 UTC.
• Thursday, Oct 15: Australia jobs 00:30 UTC, +20,000 after +39,500. UK GDP 06:00 UTC, -0.1% after +0.4%. PPI, retail sales, claims 12:30 UTC: PPI seen +0.5% after +0.4% (core +0.3% after +0.2%); retail +0.3% after +1.2%; claims 195,000 after 197,000. EIA delayed to 16:00 UTC, prior -3.19 million barrels.
• Friday, Oct 16: Warsh at the IMF 03:30 UTC. Eurozone HICP final 09:00 UTC, seen confirming 3.8%. Industrial production 13:15 UTC, +0.4% after 0.0%. Monthly OpEx.

A 0.2% core CPI next to a 0.6% headline would keep October 28 as a hold. A 0.4% core would reopen it before Warsh. FOMC: guide.

Earnings to Watch

• Tuesday before the open: JPMorgan about 5.90 dollars EPS. Goldman Sachs about 13.04. Citigroup about 2.65. Wells Fargo about 1.85. UnitedHealth about 4.12. Johnson & Johnson about 2.51.
• Wednesday before the open: Bank of America about 1.10 dollars. Morgan Stanley about 2.93. BlackRock about 14.30. ASML about 12.07, the AI-capex tell two hours before CPI.
• Thursday before the open: TSMC about 4.48 dollars. Charles Schwab about 1.66. PNC about 4.91. US Bancorp about 1.32.
• Friday before the open: Travelers, Truist, M&T, Citizens into OpEx.

A clean bank beat would be a firmer open into Wednesday's CPI. A credit miss would stack a growth overlay on the inflation print.

Crypto Docket

Bitcoin is near 83,951 dollars (TradingView 83,951; CoinMarketCap 83,927), a bounce from Thursday's about 80,300. Live levels: homepage. No US spot-ETF decision deadline this week. Evernorth is expected to begin Nasdaq trading as XRPN on Monday with about 473 million XRP. Aptos's four-year vest ends Monday after an about 11.31 million APT print. Pump.fun unlocks a snapshot near 38 to 52 million dollars Monday. Arbitrum unlocks about 92.65 million tokens Friday, near 18 to 19 million dollars. Deribit shows about 1.25 billion dollars of Bitcoin options open interest into Friday's expiry. Thailand's Bitcoin and Ether ETF rules take effect Friday.

How the Week Could Play Out

Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a hot-CPI path, core prints +0.4 percent and Thursday's core PPI follows hot. October odds would bounce off the high teens and Warsh would trade as a live policy event. In an in-line path, a 0.6 percent headline next to a 0.2 percent core and data-dependent Warsh language would leave 17 to 20 percent October odds intact. In a cool-core path, core at +0.1 percent or below, or claims above 230,000, would fade those odds even if headline is noisy on energy. Traders watching 7,811.54 as the cash reference and 7,883 as the futures reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Tuesday's 7,818.93 record close toward the 7,844.52 high. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,779.34 low, then Thursday's 7,731.26. For Bitcoin, a hold of 83,951 dollars then about 84,180 is the bullish trigger; a slip through 82,879, then 82,000, is the bearish one. These are observations of the calendar and the price structure, not instructions.

ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. S&P cash is Friday, October 9, 2026's close; E-mini futures and Bitcoin are live as of 06:00 UTC on October 12, 2026.