China CPI Cools as Factory Inflation Hits a Four-Year High

China's CPI cooled today as factory inflation hit a four-year high. As flagged in Friday's morning analysis, the week turns on inflation after October payrolls printed 165,000. The National Bureau of Statistics released October consumer and factory-gate prices at 01:30 UTC.

The Setup: Asia Rebounded After Last Week's AI Rout

The S&P 500 closed 7,376.86 on Friday, up 0.31 percent (CNBC, Barchart), range 7,369.55 to 7,444.20, against Thursday's 7,353.73. Nasdaq closed 24,579.42 (+1.09%). The Dow closed 51,285.73. Overnight S&P 500 futures last printed 7,430.5, labeled overnight futures (Yahoo Finance as of 06:25 UTC), up 0.39 percent versus 7,402.0, range 7,363.75 to 7,452.50. Nasdaq 100 futures last printed 27,092.5. US cash opens at 14:30 UTC.

MSCI's Asia-Pacific index of shares outside Japan rose 2 percent after sliding 4.6 percent last week (Reuters via Business Recorder). Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 3.45 percent as of 04:00 UTC (Al Jazeera). Taiwan's Taiex was up 5.72 percent after its steepest weekly drop in two decades. South Korea's Kospi was up about 1.7 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.19 percent. Nvidia fell about 3.5 percent after hours on Blue Ocean after its board opened an inquiry into a reported foreign spying effort aimed at Jensen Huang. Catch up: the week ahead and Sunday's weekend recap. S&P bullish trigger: reclaim Friday's 7,444.20, then 7,452.50. Bearish trigger: a slip through 7,369.55, then 7,363.75.

Story of the Day: China CPI Cools, Factory Prices Run Hottest in Four Years

China's CPI rose 0.7 percent year on year in October, below the 0.8 percent consensus and September's 0.9 percent (National Bureau of Statistics; FXStreet). Month on month, CPI was unchanged. Core CPI rose 0.8 percent year on year. Food prices fell 2.9 percent. Gasoline rose 22.4 percent and added about 0.63 points to the year-on-year rate.

Factory-gate PPI jumped 5.7 percent year on year, above the 5.3 percent consensus and September's 5.0 percent (FXStreet). Reuters, via Business Recorder, said that was the fastest factory-gate pace in more than four years. Month on month, PPI rose 0.7 percent. The mix is soft households next to hot energy into Tuesday's US CPI.

Scenarios to watch: a hot US core print on Tuesday would stack on this factory-gate impulse. A 0.1 percent US core miss would fade that overlay. Guide: the CPI explainer.

Gold Holds the Overnight Bounce

Spot gold last printed 4,120.897 dollars (TradingView as of November 9). Kitco sat at 4,110.00 as of 06:34 UTC, 0.26 percent apart. Reuters had 4,123.46 at 04:28 UTC, up 1.4 percent. COMEX December last printed 4,125.2 (Yahoo Finance as of 06:25 UTC) versus Friday's 4,074.9. GoldTicker's session range was 4,055.30 to 4,133.64; Kitco's high sat near 4,135.10. The overnight bounce is under 2 percent. CME FedWatch, via Reuters, still puts a December hike near 80 to 81 percent after Friday's 165,000 payrolls. Gold bullish trigger: a hold through 4,135.10. Bearish trigger: a slip through 4,055.30.

Oil Eases After Trump Plays Down New Iran Strikes

West Texas Intermediate last printed 89.86 dollars (Yahoo Finance as of 06:25 UTC), down 1.07 percent from 90.83, range 89.73 to 91.42. Oilpriceapi sat at 90.18 as of 06:16 UTC, 0.36 percent apart. Brent last printed 96.74 (Yahoo Finance) against Friday's 98.32. President Trump told CNN that renewed strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if talks on a "very strong agreement" progress (Reuters via Business Recorder). JPMorgan put the surplus at 1.1 million barrels a day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October. Oil bullish trigger: reclaim 90.83, then 91.42. Bearish trigger: a slip through 89.73.

Bitcoin Stays Heavy Overnight

Bitcoin last printed 74,374 dollars (TradingView). Kraken last traded 74,214.20, 0.21 percent apart, 24-hour range 73,444.30 to 76,096.20, today high 75,500. CoinGecko sat at 74,203 as of 06:34 UTC, down 2.05 percent over 24 hours. Ether last printed 2,129.0 (TradingView); Kraken last traded 2,115.33. The move is overnight risk-off, not a US cash session. Bitcoin bullish trigger: a hold through 75,500. Bearish trigger: a slip through 73,444.30.

What's Next: German Trade, Fed Speakers, and Tuesday CPI

German September trade is due at 07:00 UTC, seen at a EUR 19.2 billion surplus after EUR 19.5 billion. That print had not landed when these prices were taken. Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee, and Barkin start at 13:40 UTC. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 17:25 UTC after Thursday's hike to 4.00 percent. Earnings around 21:00 UTC include Occidental and Take-Two. The Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions prints at 23:50 UTC.

Tuesday is the fulcrum. October US CPI prints at 13:30 UTC, seen at +0.3 percent headline and +0.2 percent core after September's +0.6 / +0.3. BLS may skip year-on-year rates because of the 2025 shutdown data gap. Docket: the calendar and the week ahead. Scenarios to watch: a US core print at 0.3 percent or hotter next to China's 5.7 percent PPI would firm those 80 percent December-hike odds. A 0.1 percent core miss is the mix that pulls them down. None of this is a recommendation.