October CPI this week could set Fed odds for the S&P 500 after last week's 165,000 payrolls beat. Catch up on last week here: weekly markets roundup. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,376.86. Bitcoin is near 75,662 dollars live. S&P 500 futures reopen Sunday at 23:00 UTC. Times below are UTC. Docket: the calendar.
The Big One: October CPI on Tuesday at 13:30 UTC
The week pivots on Tuesday, November 10. BLS prints October consumer prices at 13:30 UTC, the last CPI before the December 8-9 FOMC. Guide: the inflation explainer. September ran +0.6 percent headline and +0.3 percent core. Consensus is a cooler +0.3 percent headline and +0.2 percent core (AskTraders; FactSet nearer +0.24 percent headline). BLS may skip year-on-year rates because of the 2025 shutdown, so the month-on-month core line is the event.
Friday's +165,000 payrolls, 4.1 percent unemployment and +0.4 percent wages already lifted December hike odds to about 77 to 78 percent. A 0.3 percent core would treat December as live. A 0.1 percent miss would pull those odds down. Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC, four hours before the print. Veterans Day then shuts Treasuries on Wednesday, so any surprise hits a thinner rates book.
- Tuesday 13:30 UTC: October CPI seen +0.3% headline after +0.6%; core seen +0.2% after +0.3%
- BLS may omit year-on-year rates. Last CPI before the December 8-9 FOMC
- Waller at 09:00 UTC. December hike odds about 77 to 78 percent after 165,000 payrolls
Economic Calendar, Day by Day
Monday 9 November through Friday 13 November. Not an options-expiry week; November monthly expiry is 20 November. No FOMC, ECB, Bank of England or Bank of Japan rate decision. Friday PPI is the pipeline check after Tuesday's CPI.
- Monday, Nov 9: China CPI and PPI at 01:30 UTC, CPI seen +0.8% year on year after +0.9%, PPI seen +5.3% after +5.0%. Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin from 13:40 UTC. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at 17:25 UTC after last week's hike to 4.00 percent. BoJ Summary of Opinions at 23:50 UTC.
- Tuesday, Nov 10: Waller at 09:00 UTC. CPI at 13:30 UTC. Bank of Canada deliberations at 18:30 UTC.
- Wednesday, Nov 11: Veterans Day. Stocks open, Treasuries shut. German CPI final at 07:00 UTC, seen confirming -0.2% month on month and +2.8% year on year. OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report around 10:00 UTC. EIA inventories move to Thursday 17:00 UTC.
- Thursday, Nov 12: UK Q3 GDP at 07:00 UTC, seen +0.7% quarter on quarter after +0.5%, about +1.7% year on year (AskTraders, ITC). Claims at 13:30 UTC, seen 195,000 after 189,000. Existing home sales at 15:00 UTC, seen 3.94 million after 3.99 million. Delayed EIA at 17:00 UTC. Fed's Hammack, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams from 14:00 UTC. FOMC: the Fed guide.
- Friday, Nov 13: Eurozone GDP second estimate at 10:00 UTC, seen confirming +0.4%. US PPI at 13:30 UTC, seen +0.4% headline and +0.3% core after +1.3% and +0.7% (Briefing.com, ITC). Fed's Daly, Williams and Jefferson from 17:00 UTC.
- Tuesday 13:30 UTC: October CPI. Waller four hours earlier
- Wednesday: Veterans Day, bonds shut. EIA delayed to Thursday 17:00 UTC
- Thursday 07:00 UTC: UK GDP seen +0.7%. Friday 13:30 UTC: PPI seen +0.4% after +1.3%
Earnings to Watch
The index names sit around Tuesday's CPI and Thursday's close. Nvidia reports next Tuesday, November 17.
- Monday before the open: Constellation Energy, EPS about 3.91 dollars on about 9.35 billion dollars. KKR the same morning, EPS about 1.42 dollars.
- Monday after the close (21:00 UTC): Occidental Petroleum and Take-Two Interactive.
- Tuesday after the close: CoreWeave, a loss of about 1.16 to 1.55 dollars a share on about 3.5 billion dollars, call at 22:00 UTC.
- Thursday after the close (21:00 UTC): Cisco, EPS about 1.32 dollars on about 18.11 billion dollars, call at 21:30 UTC. Applied Materials, EPS about 4.05 dollars on about 10.30 billion dollars.
- Monday: Constellation Energy and KKR before the open; Occidental and Take-Two after the close
- Tuesday after the close: CoreWeave, a loss of about $1.16 to $1.55 on about $3.5 billion
- Thursday 21:00 UTC: Cisco seen about $1.32; Applied Materials about $4.05
Crypto Docket
Bitcoin is near 75,662 dollars live (TradingView; Kraken 75,634). Live levels: the homepage. No US spot-ETF decision deadline this week. Pump.fun unlocks about 6.88 billion PUMP at 12:44 UTC on Wednesday, about 26 million dollars and 1.5 percent of circulating supply (DefiLlama). Allora unlocks about 26 million dollars the same morning, a much larger share of its float.
- Bitcoin about $75,662 (live). No ETF deadline this week
- Wednesday 12:44 UTC: PUMP about $26 million (1.5% of float); Allora about $26 million the same morning
- Unlocks land on Wednesday's bond-market holiday
How the Week Could Play Out
Three scenarios frame the docket, not a recommendation. In a cool-CPI path, core prints 0.1 percent, Friday PPI cools with it, and December odds fade even after 165,000 payrolls. In a hot-core path, Tuesday's core holds 0.3 percent or hotter and Friday PPI fails to pay back September's 1.3 percent spike. In a growth-scare path, CoreWeave, Cisco or Applied warn on AI demand, extending last week's Nasdaq fade into Nvidia. Traders watching 7,376.86 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of Friday's 7,444.20 high. Bearish trigger: a slide through Friday's 7,369.55 low. These are observations, not instructions.
- A 0.1% CPI core with contained Cisco and Applied guides would let December odds sit
- A 0.3% core, or a CoreWeave or Cisco miss, would extend last week's fade into Nvidia
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,444.20. Bearish: 7,369.55
ThriveInMarkets publishes market commentary for general information only and does not provide personal investment advice. The S&P 500 figure is Friday's cash close. Bitcoin is live as of this Sunday note. Levels cited are observations, not instructions to buy or sell any asset. ThriveInMarkets is based in Cyprus and is not a licensed investment adviser.
