Bitcoin fell below $70,000 overnight to its lowest level since August, as fears of Fed rate hikes and heavy ETF outflows hit crypto, while US stock futures held steady after Cisco raised its forecast. US producer price data at 13:30 UTC is the main event today.
Prices as of 06:30 UTC.
- Bitcoin dropped about 3 percent in a few hours as traders sold risk assets and some leveraged positions were forced to close.
- Gold hit a one-year low because Treasury yields moved back above 5 percent, which makes a metal that pays no interest less attractive.
- Cisco beat forecasts and lifted its outlook on AI networking demand, which gave tech stocks some relief after the Nvidia CEO exit.
Crypto: Bitcoin Hits a Three-Month Low
Bitcoin slid to about $69,100 on Kraken after dipping near $67,000 in the early hours. Reports put liquidations of long positions above $300 million, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $300 million of outflows.
Ether is near $1,939, down about 4 percent on the day and roughly 17 percent over a week, so the weakness is broad across crypto.
Scenarios to watch: a recovery above $72,000 would show the selling has eased, while a hold below $70,000 keeps the August lows in view.
- ETF outflows and forced selling are the two flow signals driving this move.
- Bitcoin has been trading with tech stocks, so the PPI reaction matters.
Gold: One-Year Low Near $3,860
Gold is trading near $3,890 after falling about 2.5 percent on Thursday and touching a one-year low just under $3,860. The 10-year Treasury yield closed above 5 percent for the first time since October 22, and traders are now betting on a Fed rate rise rather than a cut.
Scenarios to watch: a close back above $4,000 would show buyers returning, while a break under the recent low near $3,860 would weaken the structure.
- Gold is moving against yields and the dollar, not with fear.
- A soft PPI would ease rate worries and could help gold recover.
Stocks: Cisco Steadies Futures After Nvidia Shock
The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,592, down 0.4 percent, as Nvidia fell 4.3 percent after its CEO Jensen Huang left the company. S&P 500 futures are roughly flat this morning.
Cisco jumped more than 8 percent after hours. It raised its full-year revenue forecast and doubled its target for AI infrastructure orders from large cloud customers. Asian stocks edged higher, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index up about 0.3 percent.
Scenarios to watch: a move back above 7,619, Wednesday's close, would show the market is looking past Nvidia, while a slide under 7,550 would extend the pullback.
- Cisco shows AI spending is still growing outside Nvidia.
- Nvidia reports earnings on November 17, with a new leadership question attached.
Oil: Firm on Middle East Tension
WTI is near $88.57, slightly lower today after a 2.5 percent jump on Thursday. Brent is around $95 as fresh attacks in the Middle East renewed supply worries, and both grades are still heading for a second weekly decline.
Scenarios to watch: a push back above $90 would show supply fears returning, while a fall under $87 would point to the weekly decline continuing.
- Geopolitical headlines are moving oil more than inventory data.
- Higher oil keeps inflation worries alive for the Fed.
What's Next: Today's Calendar
- 10:00 UTC: Eurozone GDP second estimate for the third quarter, expected to confirm 0.4 percent growth.
- 13:30 UTC: US producer price index for October, expected up 0.4 percent, with core up 0.3 percent.
- 17:00 UTC: Fed speakers Daly and Williams, with Vice Chair Jefferson in the evening.
- A hot PPI would support the dollar and pressure gold and crypto, while a cool one would ease rate hike fears.
- Fed comments after PPI will show how live a December move is.
This is market commentary for information only, not investment advice. ThriveInMarkets is based in Cyprus. Markets carry risk of loss.
