As flagged in this morning's analysis, Friday was Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote. The hawkish-tilt path printed. September hike odds jumped from about 35 percent to about 58 percent. The S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, down 0.2 percent, below Thursday's 7,730.99. Spot gold dropped about 3 percent to near 4,460 dollars, breaking the 4,600 shelf. Bitcoin sits near 77,500 dollars after giving back an 81,455 overnight high. This is the evening scorecard of what played out, not an instruction.
The Close: A Modest Fade After a Session High
The S&P 500 fell 19.23 points, or 0.2 percent, to 7,711.76 (Associated Press wrap; Yahoo Finance 7,711.76), open about 7,735, range about 7,701-7,771. Cash tagged the high after the speech, then faded. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5 percent to 26,402.42 (Yahoo close 4:31 p.m. Eastern; open 26,515.99, range 26,359.27-26,700.68). The Dow slipped less than 0.1 percent to 53,559.99. The Russell 2000 fell 1.4 percent to 2,972.37. For the week the S&P is up 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq 0.8 percent. Consumer discretionary was the top S&P sector, up 1.69 percent; information technology was the worst, down 1.29 percent. The August 13 record of 7,798.99 was never in play. Last Wednesday's 7,707.98 held.
- S&P 500 -0.2% to 7,711.76, open ~7,735, high ~7,771, low ~7,701
- Nasdaq -0.5% to 26,402.42; Dow -0.02% to 53,559.99
- Russell 2000 -1.4% to 2,972.37; tech the worst S&P sector (~-1.3%)
- Week: S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%; 7,798.99 not tested
Story of the Day: Warsh Reprices September, Gold Breaks $4,600
The morning mapped a framework path toward 7,798.99, a silence path that put 7,730.99 back in view, and a hawkish-tilt path that lifted hike odds. The third one printed. Warsh said the Fed will "have work to do" if inflation is not moving to 2 percent "clearly and at sufficient speed." The 2 percent PCE objective is a "firm, fixed target." Headline PCE is still 3.7 percent over twelve months. He said financial conditions do not look restrictive, and he again rejected forward guidance. CME FedWatch took September hike odds from about 35 percent to about 58 percent. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.348 percent, its biggest one-day rise since March. Gold did the real work: a pre-speech spike toward 4,626 dollars, then a drop to a session low near 4,445. Spot is near 4,460 dollars (TradingView 4,460.520). The 4,600 shelf broke. Traders watching the 4,513 200-day reclaim as the next structural test.
- Warsh: 2% PCE is a "firm, fixed target"; "we have work to do"
- September hike odds ~58% vs ~35% Thursday; 2-year yield 4.348%
- Gold ~$4,460 (-3%) vs this morning's ~$4,605; session low ~$4,445
- Key reference: the $4,600 shelf broke; next test is the $4,513 200-day
Story of the Tape: Marvell, PayPal, and a Nvidia Fade
The Marvell after-hours fade this morning flagged printed in cash. Shares dropped about 10 percent after a Q2 beat (2.74 billion dollars of revenue, adjusted EPS 0.94 dollars) and a 3.15 billion dollar third-quarter revenue midpoint. The miss was gross margin guided to 57.5 to 58.5 percent versus 58.5 percent expected. Nvidia gave back about 4 percent of Thursday's 9 percent jump. The iShares Semiconductor ETF fell about 3.5 percent. PayPal was the S&P's worst name, down 12.4 percent, after Stripe and Advent International walked away from an acquisition. Workday was the other side: up 6.4 percent after a beat-and-raise. Amazon gained about 3.5 percent. Salesforce, ServiceNow and Elastic stayed green. No large-cap reports followed the Friday bell.
- Marvell about -10% on a 57.5-58.5% gross-margin guide vs 58.5% consensus
- Nvidia about -4%; SOXX about -3.5%
- PayPal -12.4% after Stripe/Advent walked; Workday +6.4% on a beat-and-raise
- Zero large-cap reports after the Friday close
Crypto Check: The $81,455 Tag Did Not Stick
Bitcoin spent Asia doing what the morning still had as the first bullish trigger, then reversed it. CoinDesk had an overnight high of 81,455 dollars, the highest since May 15. Bitcoin is near 77,500 dollars (TradingView 77,494; Twelve Data 77,521 at 19:04 UTC), down about 3.4 percent versus this morning's 79,700. Range about 76,955 to 81,354. Ether is near 2,435 dollars (TradingView 2,434.7), off this morning's 2,500. The 80,000 hold failed. Bullish trigger remains a reclaim of 80,000, then 81,200. Bearish trigger is still a slip through 75,000. These are technical reference points, not instructions.
- Bitcoin ~$77,500 vs this morning's ~$79,700; overnight high $81,455
- TradingView $77,494; Twelve Data $77,521 at 19:04 UTC
- Ether ~$2,435, off this morning's ~$2,500
- BTC bullish trigger: reclaim $80,000 then $81,200; bearish: a break of $75,000
After-Hours and Overnight Watch
The framework path toward 7,798.99 did not print. West Texas Intermediate is near 83.40 dollars (MarketWatch 83.38; FT.com 83.42), little changed from this morning's 83.10. Three things frame Monday: whether gold's break of 4,600 holds into Asia, whether the 2-year keeps 4.35 percent, and whether Thursday's Nvidia follow-through is done. Next week: Dell and Palo Alto Networks on September 1, Broadcom and Snowflake on September 2, then August payrolls on September 4. Traders watching 7,711.76 as the new cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push back through Thursday's 7,730.99 toward 7,798.99. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,707.98, then Wednesday's 7,657.41 low. Invalidation of this week's repair: a break of 7,600. Docket: week-ahead note. Calendar: calendar.
- WTI ~$83.40, little changed from this morning's ~$83.10
- Gold broke $4,600; 2-year at 4.348% is the rate tell into Monday
- Next week: Dell, Palo Alto Sep 1; Broadcom, Snowflake Sep 2; payrolls Sep 4
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,730.99; bearish: a slide through 7,707.98
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. S&P, Nasdaq and Dow are Friday, August 28, 2026 cash closes; gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 20:45 UTC.
