Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Caps a Thin Nvidia Rally

As flagged in Thursday's evening review, the Nvidia follow-through printed on a thin tape. Overnight E-mini futures sit near 7,744, a modest bid above Thursday's 7,730.99 cash close, as Chair Kevin Warsh prepares his first Jackson Hole keynote at 14:00 UTC. Marvell faded about 8 percent after hours. West Texas Intermediate is near 83.10 dollars. Spot gold holds near 4,605 dollars. Bitcoin has slipped back under 80,000 dollars. Catch up: Thursday's analysis. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.

The Setup: Futures Bid, Not Chasing Thursday's Tape

The S&P 500 finished Thursday at 7,730.99, up 0.7 percent, through last Wednesday's 7,707.98 and short of the August 13 record close of 7,798.99. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,541.35, up 1.6 percent. The Dow closed at 53,569.44, up 0.2 percent. E-mini S&P 500 futures are near 7,744 as of about 08:00 UTC, labeled here as overnight futures (WSJ 7,742.50 at 07:36 UTC; Investing.com 7,744). The VIX closed Thursday near 14.5. Tech was the only S&P sector in the green. US cash is still closed.

Story of the Day: Warsh's First Jackson Hole Keynote

The calendar, not the overnight tape, is the event. Warsh speaks at Jackson Lake Lodge at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, 14:00 UTC, with prepared remarks and no Q&A. Markets want something narrower: whether sticky 3.7 percent headline PCE is a September hike problem, and how Warsh treats a 10-year yield that finished Thursday near 4.67 percent. CME FedWatch has roughly a 34 percent chance of a September hike and about 74 percent by December. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said Thursday that policy is not restraining the economy. Warsh has rejected forward guidance and is waiting on five internal task forces. Apollo's Torsten Slok told Bloomberg that a speech with no framework raises the risk of a larger move in long rates.

Nvidia Holds Cash, Marvell Does Not

Thursday's 9 percent Nvidia jump did most of the S&P's work. Shares closed cash near 228 dollars, then slipped in after hours toward 226.88. Salesforce closed at 252.05 dollars, up 22.58 percent; CrowdStrike about 20 percent. The next semiconductor print did not get the same welcome. Marvell reported 2.74 billion dollars of second-quarter revenue, up 37 percent, and adjusted EPS of 0.94 dollars versus 0.93 expected, with data-center revenue 2.17 billion, up 46 percent. Third-quarter revenue is seen at 3.15 billion plus or minus 5 percent versus about 3.04 billion expected. Cash still closed at 241.45 dollars, down 1.49 percent. After hours they printed about 222.62 dollars, down 7.8 percent. Reuters said that fade, more than Nvidia, set the tone for overnight Nasdaq futures. Asia was mixed: Taiwan +1.2 percent, Nikkei +0.5 percent, KOSPI about -1 percent.

Oil Holds $83 as Hormuz Talks Hit Fresh Hurdles

The Hormuz premium is still in the tape. Thursday's cash settlement was 83.53 dollars after a Wall Street Journal report that Washington is uninterested in reviving the June memorandum with Iran. Overnight the complex gave a little of that back. West Texas Intermediate is near 83.10 dollars (MarketWatch 83.12 at 02:00 UTC). Brent is near 89 dollars, on track for a weekly loss of about 5 percent. Iran and Oman still talk a corridor; Tehran keeps tying a full reopen to an end to the conflict. Venezuela is examining an OPEC exit, a cohesion story more than a barrels story. Traders watching Thursday's 83.53 settlement as the near-term reference. A slip through this week's 80.65 session low would weaken the rebound structure. These are observations, not instructions.

Gold Holds $4,605; Bitcoin Slips Off $80,000

Bullion is little changed into the speech after an early-Asia wobble. Spot gold is near 4,605 dollars (TradingView 4,606.005 as of August 28; Investing.com 4,604.19, range about 4,572 to 4,613). Traders watching 4,600 as the first support shelf. A break of the 4,513 200-day reclaim would weaken the August structure. Bitcoin is near 79,700 dollars (TradingView 79,695, CoinMarketCap about 79,839), off Thursday evening's 80,050 after tagging 80,000 for a second time this week. Overnight range about 79,590 to 81,350. Ether is near 2,500 dollars. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin remains a hold back above 80,000, then a reclaim of this week's 81,200 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: Warsh at 14:00 UTC, Then the Weekend

Friday is one event. Three scenarios frame the open, not a recommendation. In a framework path, Warsh maps 3.7 percent PCE into September and long-end yields settle; cash can test toward the 7,798.99 record. In a silence path, no reaction function and the 10-year does the talking, putting Thursday's 7,730.99 and last Wednesday's 7,707.98 back in view. In a hawkish-tilt path, hike odds jump and the thin Nvidia rally gives back the overnight bid. Traders watching 7,730.99 as the cash reference. Bullish trigger: a push toward 7,798.99. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,707.98, then Wednesday's 7,657.41 low. Invalidation of this week's repair: a break of 7,600. Next week: August payrolls on September 4, plus Broadcom, Dell and Snowflake. Docket: week-ahead note. Calendar: calendar.

For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow figures are Thursday, August 27, 2026 cash closes; E-mini futures, gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on August 28, 2026.