Oil Slides Toward $80 on Hormuz Corridor Talks

Wednesday is the calendar day the week-ahead note flagged: July core PCE at 12:30 UTC, then Nvidia after the US close. Cash is still shut. Overnight E-mini futures sit near 7,683, a whisker above Tuesday's 7,677.28 close. The cleaner overnight move is in crude. West Texas Intermediate is near 79.90 dollars as Iran and Oman map a temporary Hormuz corridor. Spot gold eases toward 4,630 dollars from Tuesday's three-month high. Bitcoin holds near 78,950 dollars after Tuesday's 81,200 fade. Catch up: Tuesday's evening review. This is the morning scorecard, not an instruction.

The Setup: Futures Sit Firm After Tuesday's Repair

Treat the S&P reference as Tuesday's close plus a slightly firmer overnight futures print. The S&P 500 finished Tuesday at 7,677.28, up 0.32 percent, recapturing Monday's 7,652.86 and leaving last Wednesday's 7,707.98 still out of reach. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,151.30. The Dow closed at 53,577.40. E-mini S&P 500 futures are near 7,683.25 as of about 07:44 UTC, down 0.11 percent from the 7,692 settlement, range 7,670.75-7,694.00, labeled here as overnight futures. Nasdaq-100 futures are softer near 29,199.50, down 0.26 percent. The VIX is near 15.69. Tuesday's leftover single-stock tape still matters: Dick's Sporting Goods closed down 30.68 percent, and Intuit slid roughly 8 percent after hours on a lighter fiscal 2027 guide. US cash is still closed.

Story of the Day: Oil Slides Toward $80 on Hormuz Talks

The Hormuz premium is coming off again. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani counterpart Badr Albusaidi discussed an interim framework for a temporary joint maritime corridor and a joint mine-clearance project, according to a statement carried by the Oman News Agency. Technical talks continue toward a permanent corridor and the strait's future administration. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said the two sides would negotiate a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days. West Texas Intermediate is near 79.90 dollars, down about 3 percent from Tuesday's 82.36 settlement. Yahoo printed 79.92 dollars at 07:49 UTC. AGBI had 80.38. Brent is near 86.40 dollars, off almost 9 percent on the week. Kpler counted five commodity vessels through the strait on Tuesday versus a 10-day average of 15. The talks are a corridor, not a full reopen. Live levels sit on the ThriveInMarkets homepage.

Gold Eases From a Three-Month High Into PCE

The metal is giving back a slice of Tuesday's extension. Spot gold is near 4,630 dollars, off Tuesday's three-month high near 4,665 and a session high around 4,697. Reuters printed 4,626.79 dollars at 06:25 UTC, down 0.6 percent. TradingView showed 4,638.985 as of August 26. MarketScreener clustered at 4,627.60. US gold futures were near 4,684. CME FedWatch, via Reuters, has a 61.6 percent chance of a September hold. Traders watching 4,602 as the first support shelf of last week's extension. A break of 4,513, the 200-day reclaim from last week, would weaken the structure. Reuters' Wang Tao flagged 4,681 as the first resistance retest. These are observations, not instructions.

Crypto Check: Bitcoin Holds $78,950 After the $81,200 Fade

Digital assets did not follow oil lower overnight. Bitcoin is near 78,950 dollars (TradingView 78,986, Yahoo 78,935 to 78,963) after Tuesday's 24-hour high of 81,235, the first print above 80,000 since mid-May. Monday morning had it near 77,300. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in about 338 million dollars on Monday. Ether is near 2,460 dollars (TradingView 2,457.6, MarketWatch 2,455.55), little changed from Tuesday evening's 2,450. Bullish trigger for Bitcoin is a hold above 80,000 dollars, then a reclaim of Tuesday's 81,200 area. Bearish trigger: a slip through 75,000. These are technical reference points, not instructions.

What's Next: PCE at 12:30 UTC, Then Nvidia After the Close

Two prints, one session. The Bureau of Economic Analysis drops July personal income and outlays at 12:30 UTC. Consensus clusters around headline PCE easing to 3.6 percent year over year from 3.7 percent, with core holding at 3.3 percent. That is the last official inflation reading that can still shape Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday at 14:00 UTC. EIA inventories follow at 14:30 UTC after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.2 million barrel crude build, a fourth weekly increase if confirmed. After the close, Nvidia reports fiscal Q2 against Street estimates near 2.09 dollars of adjusted EPS and about 92 billion dollars of revenue, versus company guidance of 91 billion plus or minus 2 percent. The stock closed Tuesday at 213.05 dollars, up 2.2 percent, its first gain in eight sessions. Three scenarios frame the open, not a recommendation. In a soft-PCE, Hormuz-talks path, oil stays heavy and the S&P leans toward last Wednesday's 7,707.98. In a hot-PCE path, core above 3.3 percent puts Tuesday's 7,650.92 low back in play. In an Nvidia-disappointment path, a guide that merely matches the 91 billion dollar run-rate sells the AI complex into Jackson Hole even if PCE is tame. Traders watching 7,707.98 as the bullish trigger for the S&P, 7,650.92 as the bearish trigger, and a break of 7,600 as invalidation of the Friday-repair tone. Docket: calendar.

For live prices across crypto, equities, gold and oil, see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow figures are Tuesday, August 25, 2026 cash closes; E-mini futures, gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 08:00 UTC on August 26, 2026.