As flagged in this morning's analysis, overnight E-mini futures sat near 7,875 against Tuesday's 7,818.93 cash record. The hold of 7,818.93 toward 7,844.90 failed. The fade through 7,805.96 cashed. The S&P 500 closed 7,801.77, down 0.2 percent. Caterpillar closed 813.83 dollars, down 5.8 percent. Bitcoin last printed about 83,495 dollars. Gold last printed about 4,110 dollars. WTI last printed about 89 dollars after tagging 90.98. FOMC minutes left October hike odds near 19 percent. This is the evening scorecard, not an instruction.
The Close: S&P 7,801.77, Off the Record
The S&P 500 closed 7,801.77, down 17.16 points or 0.2 percent (Associated Press). The session ran about 7,763.34 to 7,807, through Tuesday's 7,805.96 low. Tuesday's 7,818.93 record was not repaired. The high failed short of 7,844.90. Monday's 7,773.95 was tagged on the low. The Nasdaq Composite closed 27,538.69, down 0.2 percent. The Dow closed 51,179.87, down 0.7 percent. The Russell 2000 closed 2,793.20, down 1.3 percent. Reuters put NYSE decliners at about 3.22 to 1, with 81 new highs and 423 new lows. Industrials led. Healthcare held up. Housing stocks fell about 3.1 percent to a 17-month low. The 10-year yield tagged about 5.36 percent and last printed about 5.28 percent after a 10-year reopening that drew a 2.77 bid-to-cover versus a 2.51 average. The 30-year sat near 5.68 percent, a 24-year high.
- S&P 7,801.77 (-0.2%); range ~7,763.34-7,807; Tuesday record 7,818.93 unrepaired
- Nasdaq 27,538.69 (-0.2%); Dow 51,179.87 (-0.7%); Russell 2000 2,793.20 (-1.3%)
- NYSE decliners ~3.22 to 1; 10-year ~5.28% after a ~5.36% high; 30-year ~5.68%
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,818.93 toward 7,844.90; bearish: through 7,763, then 7,727.59
Story of the Day: Caterpillar Drops 5.8%
Caterpillar closed 813.83 dollars, down 49.61 or 5.75 percent (StockAnalysis, Yahoo), range 806.29 to 846.00. Truist's price target sat at 1,100 dollars from 1,225, still on the tape. A federal inquiry into farm-equipment market practices added pressure. Deere fell about 4 percent. PACCAR eased. Industrials were the weakest S&P group. Mega-cap tech was mixed, with Meta down about 2.4 percent and Nvidia down 0.7 percent.
FOMC minutes at 18:00 UTC were the first set after the September hike of 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent. Officials were split on whether the move was mainly an energy shock or a demand problem. Some wanted a plan for Treasury-market stress while keeping the Fed's footprint limited. October hike odds stayed near 19 percent, in line with this morning's 17 to 20 percent. The long end mattered more than the minutes.
West Texas Intermediate last printed about 88.99 dollars (FT last; Reuters settle 88.28), range 87.96 to 90.98. This morning's about 89.90 and the 89.62 low both gave way. Tuesday's 86.86 low was not fully cashed. EIA crude inventories fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million versus a 1.7 million build expected. Gasoline rose 0.4 million versus a draw expected. Cushing rose 444,000 barrels. Brent briefly printed above 101 dollars and settled about 100.20. The September 29 high at 94.74 remains the scare marker. Spot gold last printed about 4,110 dollars (TradingView 4,110.250 as of Oct 7), through this morning's 4,133 and both of the 4,126 then 4,104 references. Kitco's low ran to about 4,065.70. Still below 4,200.
- Caterpillar $813.83 (-5.75%); range $806.29-$846.00; Deere ~-4%; industrials led
- FOMC minutes: split on the September hike to 3.75-4.00%; October odds ~19%
- WTI ~$88.99 after a $90.98 high and $87.96 low; EIA crude -3.2M bbl
- Gold ~$4,110; Kitco low ~$4,066; still below $4,200
Crypto Check: Bitcoin Last Printed $83,495
Bitcoin last printed about 83,495 dollars (TradingView 83,495, down 2.55 percent over 24 hours). Yahoo's Oct 7 range ran 82,875.10 to 85,570.70. That cashed this morning's about 84,214 and the CoinDesk 83,840 reference, then tagged 83,000. CoinDesk put liquidations near 547 million dollars, mostly longs. The reclaim of 85,095 dollars did not cash. Ether last printed about 2,574 dollars (TradingView 2,574.1, down 4.74 percent), a fade from this morning's 2,616, and held under 2,600. Live levels: homepage. BTC bullish trigger: a reclaim of 83,840 dollars, then 85,095. Bearish trigger: a slip through today's about 82,875.
- Bitcoin ~$83,495; Yahoo range $82,875-$85,571; through this morning's $84,214 and $83,840
- CoinDesk liquidations ~$547M, mostly longs; $85,095 unreclaimed
- Ether ~$2,574; fade from this morning's ~$2,616; held under $2,600
- BTC bullish trigger: reclaim $83,840, then $85,095; bearish: through $82,875
After-Hours and Overnight Watch
US cash is shut until Thursday 13:30 UTC. Levi Strauss reported after the close. Adjusted diluted earnings were 0.48 dollars a share versus about 0.36 expected, on net revenues of 1.61 billion dollars against about 1.62 billion expected. Reported sales rose 4 percent. Organic sales rose 5 percent. The US print was down 1 percent. Full-year adjusted EPS was raised to 1.54 to 1.56 dollars from 1.46 to 1.52. After hours the shares were roughly flat (CNBC). PepsiCo reports Thursday before the open. China onshore trading resumes October 8. Docket: week ahead. Scenarios to watch, not a recommendation. Bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,818.93 toward 7,844.90. Bearish trigger: a slide through 7,763, then 7,727.59.
- LEVI: adj EPS $0.48 on sales $1.61B; FY adj EPS raised to $1.54-$1.56; after hours roughly flat
- Thursday: PepsiCo before the open; China onshore tape October 8
- Gold bullish trigger: reclaim $4,126 then $4,152; bearish: through $4,066
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,818.93 toward 7,844.90; bearish: 7,763, then 7,727.59
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Wednesday, October 7, 2026; gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 20:45 UTC.
