As flagged in this morning's analysis, overnight E-mini December futures sat near 7,798 against Thursday's 7,744.06 cash close, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh withheld an October hike signal, and industrial production at 13:15 UTC was the last major US print of the week. The overnight premium did not cash. The S&P 500 closed 7,659.44, down 1.1 percent. The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,140.03, down 2.1 percent, its worst week since June. This is the evening scorecard, not an instruction.
The Close: S&P 7,659.44 After Overnight ES Near 7,798 Failed to Cash
The S&P 500 closed 7,659.44, down 1.1 percent (Associated Press / Seattle Times). Range 7,631.77 to 7,756.84. Overnight ES near 7,798 did not cash. The session broke this morning's 7,669.66 bearish trigger and October 1's 7,666.45. October 6's 7,818.93 record close remains unrepaired. The week lost 152.10 points, or 1.9 percent. The Nasdaq Composite closed 26,140.03, down 2.1 percent, and snapped through Thursday's 26,308.85 low. The Nasdaq lost 1,226.14 points, or 4.5 percent, on the week, its worst week since June. The Dow closed 52,002.41, down 0.3 percent, and still finished the week up 0.7 percent. The Russell 2000 closed 2,721.37, down 1.7 percent. Associated Press said European and Asian markets closed higher. West Texas Intermediate last printed about 101.41 dollars, reversing this morning's about 97.38 after the IEA's extra 20 million barrels. Brent last printed about 109.86 dollars, tagging 110 for the first time since May (CNBC; PrimeXBT). Spot gold last printed about 4,168 dollars, a fade of about 0.5 percent from this morning's about 4,187, under the 2 percent bar for a standalone long-term gold story. S&P bullish trigger: a reclaim of 7,669.66 then Thursday's 7,744.06. Bearish trigger: a slide through today's 7,631.77 low.
- S&P 7,659.44 (-1.1%); range 7,631.77-7,756.84; overnight ES ~7,798 did not cash
- Nasdaq 26,140.03 (-2.1%), week -4.5% worst since June; Dow 52,002.41 (-0.3%); Russell 2,721.37 (-1.7%)
- WTI ~$101.41 vs morning ~$97.38; Brent ~$109.86; gold ~$4,168
- S&P bullish trigger: reclaim 7,669.66 then 7,744.06; bearish: 7,631.77
Story of the Day: CoreWeave Drops 12% as the Chip Complex Unwinds
CoreWeave closed 61.39 dollars, down 11.91 percent, after Thursday's 5.94 percent bounce to 69.69 (StockAnalysis; Yahoo). Range 59.90 to 66.69. Volume ran about 93 million shares. The name is down more than 25 percent from last Friday's 82.08 close. Micron closed 878.84 dollars, down 5.63 percent. Intel closed 89.85 dollars, down 5.79 percent (Associated Press). The tape sold the AI-financing complex that this morning's Kospi rebound had tried to stabilize. September industrial production printed 0.7 percent versus about 0.4 percent expected, with capacity utilization 76.9 percent versus 76.5 percent (Federal Reserve G.17). Manufacturing rose 0.3 percent. Utilities jumped 3.5 percent. Motor vehicles and parts fell 3.0 percent. Import prices jumped 1.1 percent versus about 0.8 percent expected, and 8.1 percent year over year, the largest annual gain since July 2022 (BLS). Fuel imports rose 4.8 percent. Neither print stopped the Nasdaq dump. Travelers reported core EPS of 9.18 dollars versus about 7.43 expected, combined ratio 86.8 percent, and closed 389.54 dollars, up 1.47 percent. Truist posted adjusted EPS of 1.16 dollars, with GAAP EPS of 0.56 dollars after a 1.4 billion dollar securities loss, and closed 47.10 dollars, up 1.13 percent. Nasdaq bullish trigger: a reclaim of 26,308.85. Bearish trigger: a hold of 26,140.
- CoreWeave $61.39 (-11.91%); Micron $878.84 (-5.63%); Intel $89.85 (-5.79%)
- Industrial production +0.7% vs +0.4%; capacity utilization 76.9%
- Import prices +1.1% m/m, +8.1% y/y, largest since July 2022
- Nasdaq bullish trigger: reclaim 26,308.85; bearish: 26,140
Crypto Check: Bitcoin Fades to $81,499 After This Morning's $82,134
Bitcoin last printed about 81,499 dollars (TradingView 81,499; GuruFocus 81,489.31). That sits under this morning's about 82,134. Session range about 80,735 to 82,717. Thursday's about 79,800 low remains the floor. Ether last printed about 2,405 dollars (TradingView 2,404.6) versus this morning's about 2,447. Live levels: homepage. BTC bullish trigger: a reclaim of 82,286 dollars, then 82,717. Bearish trigger: a slip through about 80,735, then 79,800.
- Bitcoin ~$81,499 vs this morning's ~$82,134
- Range ~$80,735-$82,717; Ether ~$2,405 vs morning ~$2,447
- BTC bullish trigger: reclaim $82,286 then $82,717; bearish: $80,735, then $79,800
After-Hours and Overnight Watch
CoreWeave last printed about 61.52 dollars after the close, a bounce of about 0.2 percent. The Fed enters communications blackout on Saturday ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC. Oil remains the weekend swing factor. CNBC put the WTI settle at 101.41 dollars, up 3.5 percent, after further Hormuz tanker attacks and after Ukraine abandoned an energy ceasefire. Brent tagged 110 dollars for the first time since May. Oil bullish trigger: a hold of 101.41 through today's 101.82 high. Bearish trigger: a slip through today's 96.85 low, then this morning's 97.38. Gold bullish trigger: a reclaim of 4,199.50. Bearish trigger: a slip through about 4,147, then 4,066. Asia reopens Monday against a US cash close that broke this morning's S&P 7,669.66 floor. Docket: week ahead and the calendar. Scenarios to watch.
- Fed blackout Saturday; FOMC October 27-28
- WTI ~$101.41; Brent ~$109.86; Hormuz attacks remain the offset to the IEA release
- Oil bullish trigger: hold $101.41 through $101.82; bearish: $96.85. Gold bullish: reclaim $4,199.50; bearish: $4,147, then $4,066
For live prices see the ThriveInMarkets homepage. None of the above is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Index closes are Friday, October 16, 2026. Gold, oil, Bitcoin and Ether are live as of 20:45 UTC.
