S&P 500 Holds Higher as Services Prices Hit a Four-Year High

By 16:10 UTC the cash session is open and the morning Nikkei story is no longer the tape. The S&P 500 last printed about 7,758, up about 0.5 percent from Friday's 7,722.72 close. E-mini futures are near 7,815. ISM services printed 54.9, and the prices index hit 74, the highest since July 2022. The 10-year is back near 5.32 percent. This is a mid-session scorecard, not an instruction. Docket: calendar.

Story of the Day: S&P 500 Holds the Gain

ES futures last printed about 7,815, up about 0.5 percent from Friday's 7,777.25 settlement. The cash index last printed about 7,758, up about 0.5 percent from Friday's 7,722.72 close. That print is back through the high of Friday's session. The August 13 cash record at 7,816.70 is still above the tape. ES futures rose as services prices hit a four-year high. Employment improved after two months of contraction. Businesses raised what they pay for fuel and other inputs. The services sector kept growing even as costs stayed hot. A hold above Friday's settlement keeps the day's gain intact.

The Print: Services Prices Hit 74

The Institute for Supply Management said the services PMI registered 54.9 in September, down from 55.4 in August and a touch under forecasts clustered around 55.1 to 55.2. It was the 27th straight month above 50. Business activity dropped to 56.5 from August's 61.7. New orders eased to 59.8 from 60.9. Employment moved back to 50.1 from 47.8, so the hiring gauge is no longer in contraction.

The prices index is the part that matters for rates. It registered 74, up from 72.6, and the highest since July 2022, when it printed 74.5. The index has been above 70 for the sixth time in seven months. Companies told ISM that tariffs, fuel, and tight supply chains are still in the cost base. The headline says services are growing. The prices line says that growth is still expensive.

Yields, Oil, and Bitcoin

The 10-year yield last printed about 5.32 percent, up from Friday's 5.28 percent. A softer payrolls report on Friday had cooled hike talk. The prices index put some of that heat back into the long end. WTI last printed about 90.24 dollars, down about 1.0 percent from Friday's 91.11 settlement, so the oil slip from the G7 stock release is still in the tape. Gold futures last printed about 4,166 dollars, little changed. Bitcoin last printed about 85,223 dollars, down about 1.5 percent from a prior close near 86,513.

The Nasdaq Composite last printed about 27,381, up about 0.7 percent. The Dow last printed about 51,148, little changed. The split is tech holding the index up while the Dow does not confirm it.

What's Next

Into the close, the line on futures is Friday's 7,777.25 settlement. Above it, the cash market can keep Friday's high and eye the 7,816.70 record. Below it, the gain from this morning fades. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the next policy test. This note does not say buy or sell. It says the services economy is still expanding, and companies are paying the most for inputs since 2022, while the S&P has not given the gain back.